Iranʼs GDP growth in 2017/18 eased considerably as the effect of a large surge in oil revenues in the previous year dissipated. The Government’s prudent management of fiscal buffers aims to help Iran to deal with the rising inflation rate and depreciating currency, against a backdrop of a persistent high unemployment rate, which is expected to increase pressure on peopleʼs livelihoods.
In the medium term, the economy is projected to once again experience an episode of stagflation as oil exports and inflation are expected to return to 2012/13 and 2013/14 levels. Overall GDP is projected to contract by 1.6 percent in 2018/19 and again by 3.7 percent the following year which suggests Iran will be one of a few countries in the 2018–2020 period that are projected to experience a period of economic recession and rising prices—stagflation.
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